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Value Betting is a common principle in sports betting where you place bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds offered by the bookmaker imply.
Episode 11: Day 117, Profit 78045 kr (approx €7800).
Only 6 days since my last update and what a stunning and slightly surreal few days it’s been. After a month of placing the most bets I’ve placed in a month but finding my profit figures stubbornly sticking around the 45000 to 55000 kr range suddenly it all goes a bit crazy. I did manage to place over 110 bets on Tuesday (the most I’ve managed in one day) but was definitely not expecting anything like these results:
The big increase represents a jump from 53000 kr to around 76000 kr in a little over a day. Latest detailed results now look like this:
Naturally, I’m fully aware that these figurs can go down as well as up and that another 20/25% dip could be coming any time but after almost 4 months, I have little doubt that Value Betting works. Now I just need to focus less on the ups and downs and just press ahead and place as many bets as possible. My aim is to get up to 8000 value bets before the end of the year.
Episode 10: Day 111, Profit 54080 kr (approx €5400).
Almost 2 weeks on from the rather spectacular 20% crash in profitability and the situation is improving slowly. Reducing my max odds and bank size appears to have done the job so far and I’m back to a nice steady increase in profits. I’m also placing far more bets now. June was by far my least successful month so far:
On the plus side, I did end up in the black for the month with a small profit of a few hundred kronor but I’d be lying if I didn’t say it was a little demoralising after placing so many bets. I”m still placing the vast majority of the bets with Bet365. The main reason for this is purely down to lack of capital. I’m determined not to withdraw any profits from this account until I eventually get restricted. Right now I have around 48000 kr (from my initial 2 x 5000 kr deposits) in the account so just going to keep going with this for now. Onwards and upwards. Hoping for a positive month and with any luck a new ATH (All Time High). It would be reassuring to get back above the CLV line but as long as the profits keep coming then I won’t lose sleep over this.
Episode 9: Day 99, Profit 46354 kr (approx €4600).
So I guess I always knew this was coming. Running so far ahead of Expected Value, a seemingly infallible strategy of placing all tennis bets with Bet365 and with almost 3 months of unhindered profits it almost felt like it would go on forever. Maybe it was my complacency in thinking I could just go to Spain, place a few bets whilst chilling by the pool, and cover the costs of the trip. Then, out of nowhere, a veritable bloodbath! Anyone would think I was “investing” in crypto. In truth, it’s more of a correction really but the dive down to the Expected Value line was no less brutal.
Here’s the stats for those who are interested:
This dip represents a fall from 65213kr in profit down to 46354kr in the space of 4 days. Now although I fully understand that these dips can happen and it’s about long term investment rather than short term profit, it would take a practical mindset and emotional maturity way beyond me to not be just a little deflated by the results. So what now? In truth, I maybe got a little too excited when I increased the maximum odds and my bank at the same time. Both of these will greatly increase the variance and thereby the chance of big swings. Now, I’ve gone back to my previous bank size of 50000kr (this automatically decreases your stake size) and put the max odds back to the recommened 3.50. It’s obviously tempting to keep them the same in the hope of an impending upswing but this is purely the gambler’s fallacy (the erroneous belief that a random event is less or more likely to happen based on results from previous events) kicking in. Also, attempting to chase your losses is probably the number one reason why anyone loses large amounts in gambling or investing.
So here we are. It’s a Monday evening. I’ve set my alarm for the morning when there should be another huge batch of tennis value bets available on Bet365. I’m also planning to start up again with some of the other bookmakers but am now being way more careful to only deposit money that I don’t need to withdraw until I’m restricted. Not withdrawing is one of the best ways to keep your accounts open. So with admittedly some trepidation, I’ll get back on it tomorrow and just keep increasing the number of value bets that I’ve place. Even with the downswing, I’ve still made an average profit of 23kr for every bet that I’ve placed (1945 so far). Considering it only takes a few seconds this is still an amazing return. If you want to find out more or find out how others are getting on, then come join our Slack group.
Episode 8: Day 84, Profit 62337kr (approx €6200).
“Holy Shit, an update” I hear all of you 8 people per day who visit this website shout out in unison. Seriously, are any of you any good at SEO? I feel this should get more traffic. Anyway, let’s get on with the usual blog author convention and apologise for the lack of recent updates. I’ve been in Spain on holiday if that’s any excuse. I (when I say I, I mean mainly my husband) did manage to keep up with a decent amount of Value Bets while we were away although probably around half the bets that we’d normally place. It was a bit of an emotional rollercoaster as ever. I got a little too confident with the big profit increase before the trip and assumed I could just sit by the pool with my glass of wine and pay for the holiday. What actually happened was a fairly depressing 20% drop in profits in one day and roughly the same profit at the end as the start of the holiday. This was followed by a short period of turning off my phone to make it all go away before I decided to follow my own earlier advice which is when you get a dip, place more bets! At the end of the trip I was slightly ahead of where I started which was a relief after the dip but then since Saturday, this happened:
Now for any of you who are Value Betting for a while, you’ll know what this means. This is around a 15% profit jump. 2 weeks of (literally and figuratively) treading water in Spain followed by a 4 day jump from the low 50000kr (€5000)s up to 62000kr (€6200). Here’s the full chart for those that are interested:
It’s been a good couple of days, but with around 32 outstanding bets it could well drop down. It’s important to realise this is an investment, albeit an investment with a proven ROI of around 30% or more a month so there’s going to be swings. The ideal Value Bettor would deposit the money, place the bets and not constantly check the results or watch random tennis streams for hours but where’s the fun in that?
Episode 7: Day 60, Profit 36950kr (approx €3695).
Hi everyone. 12 days since my last update and what a 12 days it’s been. We’re now getting a lot more consistent with placing our bets, with my husband showing some decent hustle by placing bets early in the morning and late at night. This has really helped to increase the average number of bets placed per day and subsequently the profit:
The up to date profit graph looks like this:
I’ve had a couple of drops but nothing too major and I’m certainly still way ahead of where I expected to be. Other good news is that we’ve now set up a Slack group so if you want to get all the latest updates, strategies or just ask some questions then come join us. It’s a pretty small group right now but you’re welcome to come join us on this adventure.
Apologies for the short update. If there’s anything that you’d like to know please leave a comment below or join our Slack group. I’ll try and do a more in depth update soon.
Episode 6: Day 48, Profit 25741kr (approx €2550).
A good sign of how well this has been going so far is the fact that I’m almost disappointed with the last few days. After almost hitting SEK2800 I now find myself dipping under SEK26000 again. After a concerted effort over the last few days, I managed to place just over 150 bets in 5 days which is what RebelBetting recommends if you want to hit the profit target of doubling your money after 3 months. 30 bets sounds like quite a lot but once you get used to this you can easily place these bets within an hour or 2 or work and even then, you can still get on with other things while you wait for the bets to come through.
Bet365 is still my main focus but I’ve started to branch out a little now with other bookmakers. Here’s the latest breakdown of my profit per bookmaker (By the way, all these reports on this blog are generated by the RebelBetting software):
I’m still amazed that the Bet365 yield percentage is still holding up after so many bets. I do expect it to drop at some point as it doesn’t feel that this figure is sustainable over time. SvenskaSpel have been a bit disappointing having dropped from around 9% to just 0.6% but the value of their available bets tends to be lower. Nice results from Betsson so far from just a few bets. I’m going to try an increase the number of bets with the other bookmakers. The main stumbling block at the moment is the fact that I’ve got almost SEK30000 in Bet365 which I’m trying to avoid withdrawing. This hasn’t been helped by my bad-idea-in-hindsight of betting on Liverpool and laying them on the exchange in the hope of them not winning EVERY SINGLE GAME and getting the money out that way. At least it does show that you can make some decent money out of Bet365 before you get restricted:
At this point, I think I may just have to bite the bullet and withdraw at least some of it to enable me to reinvest it with other bookmakers.
As far as other bookmakers go, I’m probably going to try and avoid ATG at least on mobile as their site is very slow (although I only have a lower end android which probably doesn’t help.) and those few extra seconds it takes to place a bet really make a difference. After only a few bets, it also appeared that I’d been restricted as my stake was limited to aroun 150 kr. However, once I changed sports and went for lower odds then it was all fine again and I was able to place 500 kr bets. Will be interesting to see how that works out though seeing as so many of the bookmakers use that same platform.
Episode 5: Day 43, Profit 22497kr (approx €2250).
My initial plan for this blog was to document my various ups and downs with Value Betting, show people that it is possible to make money from bookmakers, and hopefully, just occasionally, find someone who clicks on my affiliate link and signs up so I can make a little extra on the side. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out as I planned. Partly because no one clicks on affiliate links anymore and also because it’s been such a crazy couple of days that it’s starting to look just a little unrealistic.
Anyway, the reason for the big jump in profits has been almost entirely down to a winning run on Bet365 with a total of 14 wins from 16 bets. Here’s a screenshot of some of it:
Sorry, I can’t post the whole thing but this is all I could fit in one screenshot. Just off-screen is my biggest ever single Value Bet win with a 500 kr bet at 3.5 (max odds) bet coming through on Jaimee Fourliss. Clearly this is not normal and whilst I’m running way ahead of CLV I’m prepared both financially and psychologically for the inevitable downswing. Despite trying to approach value betting unemotionally it’s been quite hard for the last couple of days not to get excited by all the wins. I ended up watching the Kathinka Von Deichmann stream on Bet365 for a good part of the afternoon. Great game but I had no idea that in some of these games, they don’t just not have any spectators, they don’t even have ballboys/girls (ballkids?). If you’re into watching random obscure games it’s a lot of fun (my husband supports Bristol Rovers so I’m used to this). I’m quite surprised my account is still active considering the random low-level nature of the games I’m placing the bets on but apparently you can run the Bet365 account for quite a while even if you’re making a profit.
I’ve made a lot of money through Bet365 and unfortunately, despite looking promising for almost an hour, my lay bet against Liverpool from the previous post didn’t work out so I have even more money in Bet365. I’ve now placed an additional 15000 kr bet on Liverpool for the Champions League tomorrow and laid it with Smarkets for around 350 kr loss. Hopefully, it’ll come off (although I’m not confident). I’ve decided to slow down on the Bet365 bets for a few days and just back and lay a few bets to try and keep my account in good order. It’s worth taking a bit of a hit to keep this account as it’s by far the most profitable for Value Betting that I’ve come across so far.
Another reason for the increase in profits is that I’ve been spending a bit more time on this and placed a lot of bets over the last few days:
The majority are still placed early in the morning and later in the evening. I have started checking for bets more in the day but I find you can spend a lot of time without finding good bets. If you’re working from home or don’t have a boss watching over you then it’s quite easy to keep an eye on it and place bets during the day although they’re not that frequent. I’m still placing the majority of my bets with bet365 and SvenskaSpel. I’ve started to deposit some money in other bookmakers to increase the number of bets I can place. My breakdown so far of bets placed so far per bookmaker:
I’m not going to post my full results as I’m not sure it’s that interesting but will put them up on the Slack group in case anyone wants to look more closely into what strategies I’m using. If you’re interested in joining then please enter your details in the pop-up that should come up on this page.Sign Up for the 14 Day Free Trial
Episode 4: Day 41, Profit 16600kr (approx €1600) Holding steady.
So with the rush of bets over the last few days, I have to admit to being a little disappointed that it’s not slightly higher but seeing as I’m still way above the CLV (Closing Line Value) I have to remind myself that it’s still a lot of money. I’m also now in a position where I can leave the money in the bookmakers and reinvest it by placing more bets rather than having to withdraw. This should help to prevent restrictions as well as increase profits over the long term.
The CLV is a concept that I wasn’t sure about at first but after some research, I discovered why RebelBetting use this as an indicator of where your profit should be. Originally they used the common term of EV (Expected Value) which just took the percentage value of all your bets and used this to calculate what your EV should be. This proved to be inaccurate and judging by the RebelBetting community, made a lot of people a bit upset that despite the fact they were profitable, it wasn’t as much as they felt it should be. Apparently, there’s no pleasing some people. Anyway, to make this estimated profit figure more accurate, they ditched the EV figure and changed it to CLV which is way more accurate as the calculation is based on the value when the event actually starts rather than when you place the bet. From other users’ results, it appears to be a better method as I think most of us are just happy to be above that line however it’s calculated. It also brings up an interesting psychological point that even when you’re making money, you get used to it very quickly and are just looking to make more. This is why it’s important to both be prepared for the inevitable downswing and also be happy about the fact that you’ve made money. I never would have believed I’d be this far up after just over a month. It’s a lot of money (at least for me) for really not much effort, yet it’s hard to celebrate as I’ve pretty much already spent in my head on a nice holiday.
Although it’s a relatively short time I’ve been doing this, I’ve already noticed specific patterns and times it’s good to place bets. Sometimes you can sit for most of the day waiting for good value bets to come through with very little to show for it. However, I’ve found that when my alarm goes off in the morning (around 6.30am6.30 am) I can usually check and place 10 to 15 bets in the first 10 minutes before I get up (I use two mobiles, one with the value bets on and one with the bookies as I just find this easier than doing it on one). Also, late at night, I can generally find quite a few. Match days are also quite good although the odds tend to move so a lot of the value bets that come up will be gone by the time you go to place it.
Also (and bear in mind I’m doing this from Sweden but it may be relevant elsewhere) from a Swedish perspective, there are really only 5 bookmakers when it comes to the specific platform that they use. RebelBetting has around 15 bookmakers that are included in their package that are licensed in Sweden (they’re super-strict here) but when you look into it, ATG, Leovegas, PAF, SpeedyBet, Unibet, Expekt, and WilliamHill.se (different from the UK one) all use the same SBTech platform with the same odds but just a different layout. Betsafe, NordicBet, and, Betsson all run under Betssongroup so are also identical except for layout. 10Bet, Bethard, CasinoStugan, and Comeon also all have the same odds. I’m not sure what platform they are on. CasinoStugan and Comeon were always part of the same group but they appear to have joined up or bought into the same platform as the Bethardgroup. Interestingly, SvenskaSpel the government-run operation (I live in Sweden, even alcohol sales are government-run) bought into SBTech but still have their own odds and apparently don’t ever restrict people (I bet on every single random market however obscure with them) so not sure what happened there. And then there’s Bet365. Without a doubt the biggest bookmaker in the world and if you have time to look into it a very interesting back story. They have always been completely separate from everyone else and developed their own systems. They have a crazy number of value bets and over 12000 of my profit has come from them. The tricky aspect here is that they will restrict winners at some point. From my limited research it appears that if you’re not taking advantage of the various bonuses that they offer you can make at least €4000 to €5000 before they restrict you. I’ve no idea how true this is but so far I’m €1200 up with no issues. Thanks to the fact that this account is valuable I’m taking some steps to try and prevent myself from being restricted which, seeing as I’m a couple of glasses of wine in, I’ll share with you now.
- Grouping bets – I pick a particular sport or market (such as Asian Lines or 1X2) and stick with that. I feel that it just looks less suspicious than placing random bets all over the place.
- Follow a good team and place crazy high bets when they play but LAY the bet with a betting exchange. For example, today I had around 14000kr in my Bet365 account so placed a 10000 kr bet on Liverpool but layed the bet on Smarkets for a 372kr loss.
Honestly, I have no insider knowledge here and have no idea if it works but I do know that it’s a common strategy for gamblers to bet on “sure-fire” wins at low odds to slowly increase their bank-rollbankroll. Bookmakers love this just because sport is so unpredictable and it’s exactly how people lose a lot of money. Even though I’m placing hundreds of small value bets I feel like placing a big percentage of my payroll on one “sure-fire” win will improve my profile and at some point, that bet will lose and all the money will be in the exchange who don’t care if I win or lose. If you don’t yet know about lay bets and betting exchanges I recommend you take some time to understand these concepts as it’s going to be crucial if you’re serious about making money from betting.
Finally as far as this update goes, if you’re interested in trying this out then please do click on the link above. If you click on the link you get a free 2-week trial, money-back guarantee and as a bonus, access to my Slack group which I’ve set up thanks to the interest in my one youtube video (I’m planning more, but holy shit, it’s time consuming).
Episode 3: 38 Days, Profit 14310 KR (approx €1400) Still heading upwards!
Quick update: So been trying to spend a bit more time on the Value Betting over the last few days to get my number of bets (and hopefully profit) up. On average I’m spending no more than 2 hours a day on this but managing to place 30 bets a day. Now that I’ve got more used to it I find I can place 10 to 15 value bets as soon as I wake up, a few in the day and then there’s often more later in the evening.
Obviously, I’m very happy with the results so far. I’m still mainly using SvenskaSpel and Bet365 but have also gone with Unibet, and LeoVegas and will start looking at others soon. So far, I haven’t come across any stake restrictions but I imagine that will happen at some point.
Episode 2: First full month’s results are in!!
So what are the lessons I’ve learned from my first full month of Value Betting? Well firstly, although it’s great how you can do it at anytimeany time, you do need to schedule some hours otherwise, if you’re anything like me, you’ll end up leaving it for a few days which is just giving up potential profit. Also, it’s difficult but very necessary to not get emotional and understand variance. Just as I got way excited in the last few days when I went from 4000 kr to over 9000 kr, I couldn’t help but get a bit down when I suddenly had a huge downswing. This downswing led to me stopping for a few days partly because I became a little demotivated but also due to the fact that because rent was due imminently and I couldn’t afford another downswing.
I should point out that even though I set my bank as 30,000 kr I don’t have this but can afford to set it higher as I still have other money coming in if it’s required. All the results so far have been generated by a 5,000 kr deposit to Bet365, 3,000 kr in SvenskaSpel, and 2,000 kr with other bookmakers.
The majority of the bets that I’m placing are with Bet365 and nearly all on tennis. Bet365 consistently have the most Value Bets and I chose tennis just because it’s a good idea to group your bets or stick with one sport to help prevent restrictions. I’m not sure how true this theory is but so far it’s worked well. Ideally, RebelBetting recommend you place 30 bets a day. I got close to that a couple of days but in total only had an average of around 10 bets a day (299 in total). Despite this, the results were great and managed to end up well above the Closing Line Value (this is expected value but calculated against the odds when the event starts).
Here are the actual results. Very happy with 9133 KR and an ROI of 30%.
This is how it turned out over the month:
The downswing in the middle of the month was both brutal and unexpected! It started with a brief dip which then recovered before a huge fall down to less than 2000 KR. At this point, I was tempted to tweak the options slightly and change the max odds to 2.9 or lower as this should reduce the variance but decided, in the end, to keep it at 3.5.
So here are the stats…a bit of a rollercoaster but obviously very happy in the end.
Crucially, the decision to keep the max odds at 3.5 paid dividends in the end with 3 big wins all inon the last day (1125, 1125, and 1000). Some of these were very high value (over 10%) which I’ve heard are good to avoid but obviously, high it worked out well so going to stick with high odds if they have hight value.
Thanks for reading guys, I’ll update again soon.
If you’re interested in joining me in this ValueBetting adventure you can get a 2 week free trial with this link.
As well as getting the free trial and a no-profit money-back guarantee for any paid subscription, you can also get access to our exclusive Slack group which is independent of RebelBetting and as well as checking other people’s results you can ask any questions and find other ways to make money.
Episode 1: €350 in my first weekend of ValueBetting!!
Having spent a few years using Matched Betting to make a steady but regular profit, I recently came across a small Swedish company called Rebel Betting who had designed some software that can reliably identify Value Bets. They’ve been going for a few years and the results on their site are impressive. Reassuringly, they have an active community with actual members’ results that suggest that these figures are accurate.
Having long since convinced myself that Matched Betting was the only reliable way to make money from bookmakers I was still somewhat skeptical despite their undoubtedly impressive figures. Surely if I could just continue making money from bookmakers, I would have heard about this before and more people would be doing it. Once again, I decided it was time to put my natural cynicism aside and give this new system a go.
So first a small disclaimer. I made the €350 over 5 days so a little more than a weekend however the vast majority of the bets were placed on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. The results were a little over the Expected Value but nothing out of the ordinary when you look at other members’ results. In total, I placed 100 bets and the total time I spent was 2 to 3 hours a day at the most. The company I signed up with was Rebel Betting and the first thing you notice is that they’re not cheap. Currently, their starter package is €89 a month and the Pro package is €179. The starter package is recommended to get used to the layout and different options, but it does restrict the number of value bets you receive. After some internal deliberation, I decided to go with the Pro package. If nothing else, this should make for a more interesting article.
Sign up is quick and easy and after setting a few filters and options (I just went with the defaults), you’ll start receiving value bets almost immediately. I started ofoff with just a couple of bookmakers to make it easy to keep track of my money. I’m predominantly doing these while sitting at my desk on my laptop but found it just as easy to view and place the bets directly on my mobile. This is a big plus as it enables you to place bets anywhere and at any time. One of the keys to being successful with value betting is placing lots of bets so being able to do it on the move is a big plus.
I decided to try and place as many bets as possible over the first few days. This was quite scary as I suddenly had a lot of money tied up with bookmakers while waiting for the results to come in. I do not recommend staying up late to check the North American basketball scores, but unfortunately, the temptation was too much for me. It was the early hours of the morning before my losing bet on Over 151 points on Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v Memphis Tigers was confirmed.
After 3 days of placing bets, I decided to stop and wait for all my bets to settle. Every bet you place is logged in the software so there’s no need to keep your own records and the bet tracker gives you a breakdown of all your results and, most importantly, cumulative profit. This is the figure that you will be excitedly checking every morning.
Once I stopped placing bets it took a few days for all my bets to settle (I placed nearly 150 in the end) There was a slightly disappointing dip in the cumulative profit towards the end but overall, the figures were beyond what I’d hoped for with a total profit of around €250 (I live in Sweden, hence the figures are in SEK). My profit was a little bit above the Expected Value figure of €190 but even this would have more than covered the cost of the software in just 3 days.
For the first 3 days, these were impressive results, but what are the risks of using this system?
Rebel Betting stress that this should be treated as an investment. As such you will need some capital to start. The system will automatically calculate your stakes depending on the size of you your bank so you can start with any amount, but you want to make sure you at least cover the cost of the software.
Psychologically, Value Betting can be tricky. You will inevitably get large downswings as well as impressive winning runs, but it is important to look at the overall long-term picture and the overall return on investment. I do not recommend staying up all night hoping that Memphis v Western Kentucky areis going to score over 151 points in their game.
As with Matched Betting, you must be disciplined in your approach. Keep to the recommended stakes and don’t be tempted to gamble.