Yes. You absolutely can. It’s important to note though that it is becoming increasingly difficult. Casinos work on very tight margins. Most slot machines have an RTP (return to player) of around 94 to 98% and some table games have an even higher RTP than this. To gain customers and market share, many casinos offer generous sign up bonuses and even though the wagering requirements may appear high, they will often offer positive Expected Value for the player.
Expected Value and Variance
If an offer has a positive Expected Value it means that if you were to do the offer numerous times, you will eventually come out with a profit. A good example is Blackjack. Although the house edge is only around 0.5% a casino is happy for people to play it as they know that it will be profitable over time. You could well do 50 or even 100 casino offers and not come out with a profit but eventually if you plot your profit against the Expected Value on a graph the lines will converge.
Variance is the term used to describe the inevitable difference between expected value and profit. Slot machines are designed to keep you playing and so pay-outs are random and completely unpredictable. As such, you could play for hours without a win or hit two big wins in your first few spins. Psychologically, variance can be very hard to deal with as you will at times feel like the losing streak is going on forever. However, as long as you have correctly identified the offers with a positive Expected Value and you stay disciplined, you can make some huge profits.
Finding The Offers
Sadly, finding offers with a positive Expected Value isn’t quite as straightforward as it used to be. As a general rule of thumb if the wagering is x35 or x40 bonus then it is worth doing. There are a number of things you have to watch out for though in the terms and conditions:
- Check for any banned slots. Slots with a high RTP often don’t count towards wagering.
- Check if there’s a maximum payout amount. If bonus winnings are limited then the offer probably isn’t worth doing.
- Check for the max stake amount.
Also, stick to slots with an RTP of at least 96.5%. If you are looking into doing casino offers, the best tool you can get is the ev-maximiser software available here: https://ev-maximiser.com/
As well as calculating the Expected Value of the offer, it also lists hundreds of slots and their RTP.
